The day of reckoning is on Aug 26, 2008. The people of Permatang Pauh will be voting over-whelmingly in a by-election to send their favorite son Anwar Ibrahim and "prime minister-in-waiting" to Parliament. That's how the people of PKR wants to think. In reality the 20 days from now will not be a well paved road of glory for Anwar to return to parliament.
He already got his yellow card - the summon to attend court tomorrow which will charged him for sodomy. Will he be given the red card - throwing him into jail since charge of sodomy is not bailable. Since he is innocent until proven guilty, he still can be nominated as a candidate on nomination day 16 Aug, but he will not be able to campaign in person. Wan Azizah will be holding the fort and leading the campaign for him, holding his songkok and sarong while campaigning!
After Anwar is charge in court and thrown into jail, BN will be analyzing the scenario of the by-election, not the question of winning or losing but calculating the worst situation that can happen and how big the majority Anwar will get this time. Knowing that BN will lose big this time, how can BN put up a fight yet still don't lose face? This will be also round two in the sparring between Anwar and Umno deputy president Najib Razak. The first round was the Ijok by-election last year which was won by a BN representative. Najib knows his image is at stake if BN candidate lost terribly.
No matter what's the scenario BN will still nominate a candidate to contest on nomination day. The big question is whether the still unknown BN candidate or even Anwar's nomination will be accepted without any objection? Will it be a saving grace for BN if their candidate's nomination is rejected on a tecnicality? This will give Anwar a walk-over but BN can claim they actually did not lose since the voters did not vote against them. This is another way of boycotting the by-election as suggested by some Umno leaders without actually doing it. Face saving measure for everybody. The Home minister too will be "happy" that he can save some money for the nation from the costs of deployment of the police force for the by-election if it is held.
If Anwar's nomination is rejected, we better pray that common sense and compassion will prevails in both the political divide.- Loka
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