The coming by-election in January 17 next year for the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary will not only a test for the selected candidates but also for other interested parties and individual politicians.
The contest is expected to be a direct fight between Umno/BN against PAS/PR although independent candidates cannot be written off as a spoiler. The late Razali Ismail of Umno won the seat with a slim majority in the last election and do not expect a big majority for the winner this time around. Historically this seat has been changing hands between Umno and Pas with slim majorities.
The anointed PM-to-be Najib Razak will be hard-up to retain this seat as a moral booster for him to take over from Abdullah Badawi in coming March. Following tradition, Najib is expected to lead the BN campaign and he cannot risked being slewed by PR in this by-election as happened in Permatang Pauh. It will be some sort of a vote of confidence for Najib if BN wins but if Pas grabbed the seat, it can be taken as a cue that the people are having doubts about his leadership.
Umno as a party will be pressurized to take this seat. Since 308 general election, this embattled party has been whacked by it's component and opposition parties on various contentious issues. If it lose this seat it will add more misery to it's already wounded image as the dominant party of BN. To ensure this did not happens, the party will be pulling out all it's tricks under it's sleeves and playing to the gallery of Malay majority voters.
Politicians aiming for posts in the March Umno election who can spare their internal party campaigning hours will be trooping to Kuala Terengganu to make their presence felt and many won't be suprised if words coming from their mouth are to boost their standing in the eyes of Umno delegates rather than fishing for voters of the constituency. Do not be alarmed if there arises many copycats of the infamous Ahmad Ismail as in the Permatang Pauh by-election. The aim is to score political points for themselves, not for Umno or BN.
The Bandar state seat within Kuala Terengganu is the only seat held by MCA as most Chinese voters are concentrated in this urban area. This will be the primary area which MCA will set up their operation center. Basing on the slim majority in previous Kuala Terengganu contests, the Chinese votes will be crucial for both sides of the political divide. Can MCA deliver the Chinese votes under the new leadership of Ong Tee Keat? This will be Tee Keat's first foray in a by-election since elected MCA president and he need to prove his leadership not only via his linguistic style but to deliver the Chinese votes to Umno.
On the other hand, Tee Keat most probably will not be actively campaigning in KT but dispatch his trusted ally Wong Foon Meng to lead the MCA campaign. Although Foon Meng is not considered a heavyweight, to the surprised of many he was picked by Tee Keat to be MCA's secretary general after the party's election. As the third in line of the party hierachy and also a KT local boy who was also a former state exco, Foon Meng is expected to be given the mandate to lead MCA's campaign in KT. It will be an opportunity for him to justified to some of his comrades who is still doubtful of his capability that he qualifies to be the secretary general and also chairman of the MCA Selangor state committee.
As for PAS, the main challenge will be on the shoulder of it's president Hadi Awang who is based in Terengganu. He lost Terengganu to Umno in 2004 after winning it in 1999 and was it's Menteri Besar. Then Pas Terengganu performed lack-lustrely in 2008 when Pakatan Rakyat took four states while retaining Kelantan. Hadi Awang have to redeem his pride and stature not only in the eyes of his comrades in Pas but also his counterparts in Pakatan Rakyat.
It is very obvious that Hadi Awang presence in PR are not significant, most of the time Pas face in PR are represented by it's deputy president Nasharuddin Isa or some other second liners. It will Hadi's fight for his national political standing especially in the opposition front which is dominated by Anwar Ibrahim and Lim Kit Siang.
With 11 days of campaigning and impact to the stakeholders, do expect the monsoon season in the east coast state to be more ferocious than usual. - Loka
