Winners and Losers in Hulu Selangor

After eight straight days of an all out campaign for the control of Hulu Selangor parliamentary seat the official results shows that BN candidate P. Kamalanathan upstage PKR's Zaid Ibrahim with a 1,725 majority to be elected the new MP for the large constituency.

Even though the by-election was a direct contest between the two candidates, there are many other victors and losers as well.

The Bosses

As expected the voters of Hulu Selangor were showered with goodies in the form of cash, development projects, land titles and PROMISES. For sure these are on top of the usual 10 KG pack of rice, Milo, cooking oil, drinking water, cheap T-shirts and caps and whatever that will make the day of the makciks and pakciks and the innocent kids.

The Towkays

From the popular kaya puff shop owner to the makcik who manned the roadside stall selling air sirap, these group will be hoping that by-elections will happen more often. Of course they are not cursing the newly elected MP to drop dead any soon but they can't be blamed if that aspiration is hiding behind their smiling face thinking of the flowing ringgits for the last two weeks.

The Candidates

P. Kamalanathan might have won the seat and will be greeted as YB but in the eyes of many including the community that he claims to represent he has lost his dignity and pride when he stoop so low to appease his political masters.

Zaid Ibrahim lost in this full fledge battle and having his personal matter stripped bare for the public view but his personal conviction for the interest of the people was given a strong endorsement. The people of HS will not be seeing the last of him yet.

The Commanders

Those in HS and outsiders who visited the place during the by-election has been wondering who is really the BN candidate? People noticed the large quantity of posters, billboards  and banners of his face in town might assumed Najib Razak is the candidate.

Najib Razak is actually the real winner here. He can now claim that the BN victory is an endorsement of his leadership and policies that he rolled out since appointed as Prime Minister a year ago. But then he need to reflect deeply on the 80% of Chinese votes that went to PKR, when translated meaning the Chinese actually still has doubts over his sincerity and policies.

Anwar Ibrahim has been in the forefront campaigning for his comrade since day one. Basing on the result, his popularity and support within the Malay community is not stable and if left unchecked it will be his Archilles heel in the next general election. On the other hand he  now knows he can count on the votes from the Chinese community and the support of DAP in mobilising election machinery within the community.

Muhyiddin Yassin is one big loser in this by-election. The usual Umno practice is for the party deputy president to lead the campaign in any by-election. Initially Muhyiddin was in charge but when the tide was favoring PR, his boss Najib decided to fly straight from Japan to HS to lead the campaign. This gives the impression that Najib has no confidence on Muhyiddin leadership and a slap on the face of his deputy.

Khalid Ibrahim as the Selangor Menteri Besar learn the trade to pull all the plugs as the state government to utilised all state facilities support this by-election from his predecessors but too bad that Felda is not under the control of the state government. Maybe he should be more a shrewd politician rather than a businessman when handling people from Umno.

Tok Guru Nik Aziz influence and endearment amongst the Chinese community is now gone beyond Kelantan. If he is still able to keep his momentum by the next election and campaign in BN stronghold like Johore, the Chinese voters there might shake some of the seats occupied by MCA/BN.

Lim Kit Siang is already a household name amongst the HS electorates, Malays included. Thanks to Utusan Malaysia for giving him the "coverage" from time to time. As for the Chinese voters, his presence in every political stops wstill accords him a star speaker status. With an increased of support from the Chinese, efforts need to be taken for him to penetrate the Malay electorates for the next election.

Chua Soi Lek the recently elected MCA president was not around in HS most of the time as he was said to be overseas visiting his daughter. He was only seen when Najib is in HS. His presence was nothing more than an extra in a show with Najib in the leading role. He must now dig out whatever reasons he can to explain to Najib the Chinese rejection of MCA, or is it more on Umno or he himself personally?

The Political Parties

MIC is the party of P.Kamalanathan but the party that really campaigned with whatever tricks of the trade is Umno. From the onset of this by-election it can be noticed and proven that it is Umno that called all the shots and decision making process, from the selection of candidates to whether MIC president Samy Vellu should show his face in HS. People are reminded that MIC is now Muhyiddin-In-Charge.

UMNO can now claim that the Malays are truly backing them and they have contained PKR and PAS especially PR supremo Anwar Ibrahim. But they will be barking at Chua Soi Lek asking for explanation why MCA failed to secure the Chinese votes. With millions of taxpayers money pumped into the pockets of the voters, the platform is now set for the mother of all battles - the 13th general election.

PKR losing another parliamentary seat is a big blow not just to the party but also the Pakatan Rakyat as this has increased the BN potential to reclaim 2/3 majority in Parliament. The result also shows that PKR is losing grip on whatever balance of support they have since March 2008. This party really need to revamp their election machinery if they are serious of winning seats and capturing Putrajaya.

DAP rocketing growth in terms of membership and branches since March 2008 has been a boost to the PR by-election machinery. Even though PKR lost the seat but support for the DAP is on the rise. This can be observed from the numbers of self paying volunteers from all over the country helping out in the campaign and also the huge attendance in DAP organised events during the by-election.

MCA provided token support to the BN election machinery. This is not surprising since they just went through more than one year of internal strife. Their machinery are moving half heartedly and other than some cameo appearances by some of their ministers and deputy ministers, their presence are hardly noticeable. From the result, it is not surprising if many of the 8,000 MCA members in HS voted for Zaid Ibrahim.

PAS was initially slow in mobilising their party machinery in doing real campaign work to solicite for votes even though their presence during nomination day was huge. After few days of snail paced movement which cause the Malay heartland in Felda further entrenched with Umno, PAS began to push into the Felda areas. The arrival of Tok Guru Nik Aziz provided the confidence booster but just not enough to draw out the votes.

GERAKAN which once upon time a party to be reckoned with do not even make its' presence felt in HS. Maybe only during nomination when its' president Koh Tsu Koon was a given a cameo appearance.

IPF, campaign even in death?

PPP, who is the president?

The power-play and battle of wits in HS is now over. It is time for the locals to re-claim their life in this outback district. But life would not be the same anymore. The people there now must look through their checklist on all the promises and commitments by both side of the political divide.

First thing in the morning, the people of Rasa will be waiting in front of Najib's PM office door for their RM3 million as promised. A promise is a promise even if the people of Rasa did not vote for BN. But wonders if MACC will be there too? - Loka

Anwar is to blame

With the departure of MP for Bayan Baru Zahrain Hashim from Parti Keadilan Rakyat two weeks ago, it added another round of woes to PKR supremo Anwar Ibrahim who is facing second round court case on sodomy charges.

It will not be surprising if one or more of PKR's MPs decided to walk out from the party that seems facing unending problems in maintaining discipline  and loyalty amongst its elected representatives. Anwar himself already admitted his mistakes in selecting the wrong candidates for the last general election. Well, at that time he don't have much choice isn't it?

PKR's membership can be pooled into three main baskets. The first group are those who jumped ship from another party particularly from Umno. The initial batch of Umno members who switched allegiance to PKR are mostly those with third level of hierarchy in Umno, except maybe for Anwar himself, Azmin Ali, Ezam Nor (who left earlier) and a couple of others. There were so many positions for grab and opportunity to stood as election candidates which will remain a dream if they are still in Umno.

The second group are those who are Anwar-infatuated people like those involved in Abim (Angkatan Belia Islam Malaysia), namely Mustaffa Kamil Ayub and Mohd Nur Manuty. The third group are those who were involved in "reformasi" and NGOs like Tian Chua, Elizabeth Wong, Sivarasiah, Irene Fernandez etc. Later, after the "merging" with Parti Rakyat Malaysia, a small group of people led by Syed Husin Ali were absorbed into the party.

It is clear that Anwar is having a lot of headaches with those who were formerly with another political party. Current problematic PKR elected representatives who are formerly from Umno includes Kulim Bandar Bharu MP Zulkifli Noordin, Zahrain Hashim and Indera Mahkota MP Azan Ismail. Wangsa Maju MP Wee Choo Keong who claims a Selangor state exco from DAP was involved with the mafia was the founding Secretary General of the mosquito party Malaysian Democratic Party after his fallout with DAP and Nibong Tebal MP Tan Tee Beng was formerly with Gerakan.

Not forgetting the duo that partly caused the fall of Pakatan Rakyat's Perak state government Jamaluddin Radzi (Adun Behrang) and Osman Jailu ( Adun Changkat Jering) and also Port Klang assemblyman Badrul Hisham who quits PKR to become BN friendly independents, whatever it means!

It seems like these people could not forget their old flames which they had cohabited for so many years even after tying the knot with a new partner. As people says, they can have a new party but their heart is still with the former party. There will be more test cases to see if political frogs can be depended on their loyalty and commitment to their new party. Those on the watch list includes former MCA vice president Chua Jui Meng and wanita deputy head Dr Tan Yee Kew. We will see where their heart lies when PKR selects the next election candidates.

Anwar is right in putting the blame on himself for selecting these political frogs and frogs-to-be. Another thing which he has not openly apologised was his haste and dream to becomes the PM by encouraging political betrayal of BN MPs so that he can secure enough seats to take over Putrajaya. While he was scheming this, he was blinded by the dream for power and blinked while his enemy BN took the opportunity to snatch Perak under his nose and created continuous problems for his PR governments in Selangor and Penang. - Loka

Next PM please stand up

As the days getting nearer to the Umno General Assembly next week, Malaysians and the world community are expected to be served with an arrays of questions, actions and stories that will makes everyone stand up.

The gigantic question will be whether Abdullah Badawi will really vacate his seat as Prime Minister and if Najib Razak will be able to claim the coveted highest political seat of government.

As reported in the Malaysiakini, Zaid Ibrahim, the former de facto Law Minister who was sacked from Umno last year is now appealing to the King not to appoints Najib as PM when Abdullah steps down. With this call, it will not be surprising if Zaid's call will create a snowballing effect with more similar calls by others especially those that has an axe to grind with Najib. These people most probably will be from within and outside of Umno circles which includes Ali Rustam, the affable Umno vice president who was barred yesterday from contesting the deputy president position next week.

If the King really uses his discretion not appoint najib as PM, other that Najib who else can fit the bill to wear the PM shoes after Abdullah? Assuming there is no power play behind the scene to shoo-in Anwar Ibrahim as the next PM with the endorsement of Abdullah and Ali Rustam's block of supporters in Umno, will there be anyone else from Umno who are courages and capable enough to accept the PM position even if consented by the King.

Maybe there will be one. Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, can you please stand up? - Loka

Abhisit boleh, Anwar macam mana?

Abhisit Vejjajiva dari Parti Demokratik sudah berjaya meraih sokongan dari ahli-ahli parlimen Thailand termasuk dari pihak lawan untuk dinobatkan sebagai Perdana Menteri apabila mendapat restu Raja Bhumipol nanti. Walaupun Abhisit mempunyai jumlah kerusi minoriti dalam parlimen, dia telah mempengaruhi sejumlah ahli parlimen pro-Thaksin untuk menukar kiblat ketaatan dan memberikan sokongan kepadanya untuk dipilih sebagai PM.

Mengambil kira perkembangan di Thailand sekarang, persoalan yang berlegar dalam minda pemerhati politik Malaysia ialah bilakah Anwar Ibrahim akan berjaya mendapatkan sokongan yang mencukupi dari ahli-ahli parlimen parti-parti dalam BN untuk merealisasikan hasrat beliau untuk menjadi Perdana Menteri Malaysia?

Reaksi Menteri Luar Rais Yatim yang menyambut baik pelantikan Abhisit sebagai PM Thailand menimbulkan persoalan yang kedua iaitu adakah Rais Yatim akan juga mengalu-alukan pelantikan Anwar sebagai PM sekiranya Anwar berjaya menjadi PM melalui "pintu belakang" seperti yang dilakukan oleh Abhisit di Thailand iaitu tanpa menghadapi pilihanraya yang baru?

Ataupun ia hanyalah setakat cakap kosong dan untuk mensyokkan orang lain sahaja tetapi tak pernah jujur dengan segala yang di ucapkan. - Loka

-English version below-

Abhisit can, what about Anwar?

The leader of Democratic Party of Thailand Abhisit Vejjajiva who controls a minority seats in Parliament managed to secure enough support of some pro-Thaksin's parliamentarian to be elected the next Prime Minister fo Thailand. He will appointed PM once King Bhumipol gave his majesty's consent.

Taking note of the event in Thailand, the thoughts playing in the head of political observers in Malaysia is when will Anwar Ibrahim be able to draw enough support from some parliamentarians in BN parties to fulfil his dream to be PM of Malaysia?

Foreign Minster Rais Yatim positive response towards Abhisit's appointment will also give rise to another question. Is Rais prepared to welcome Anwar's appointment as PM even though it is through the "back door" just as Abhisit's in Thailand, without facing the electorates in a general election?

Or it's just empty talk to make others happy but was never intended to be honest in whatever spoken? - Loka

Jittery over a date

By tomorrow, the targeted date of Anwar's dream of being appointed the Malaysian 6th Prime Minister will be put to test.

There are those who are convinced that he will pull through with a simple majority to form the next government while there are detractors who are calling it a bluff. On the former assertion it seems that there are valid claims of confidence basing on the jittery feeling and manouvering by the Bn government.

The packing off of the 54 Bn MPs to Taiwan during the Muslims' fasting month acknowleged the tension currently felt by the Bn government. The reason of this argument is that it is not usual practice for Muslim politicians and government servants not to stay home to observe the month of Ramadhan. Travelling overseas is not a priority unless it is essential and unavoidable. It seems that both essential and unavoidable did exists on this case. The latest usaged of ISA on Malaysian citizens gave a picture of a leadership under siege and sending signals of desperate measures that backfired.

On the other hand, there is nothing much to show other than the usual rhetorics and claims by Anwar and PKR's leadership that the change of government is happening. In reality there is not a single MP from Bn that had declared their intention to join the Pakatan Rakyat government. Maybe there are some former MPs like MCA's Dr Tan Yee Kew and Gerakan's Dr Tan Kee Kwong whom already joined PKR but former MPs do not have a say in parliament isn't it. Maybe Sapp two MPs will be the first to declare? Furthermore, PR might have difficulty filling up the cabinet with qualified, experience and suitable candidates from it's own alliance. It will also expected to rope in MPs from BN as prospective cabinet ministers which might cause displeasure amongst its own members.

In the meantime, people is looking forward for a quick showdown once and for all and move on with our lives and hoping for a reduction in the cost of living.- Loka

His dream turning into reality or nightmare?

Today is D-Day that decides whether Anwar Ibrahim's dream will turn into reality or the beginning of a nightmare.

He had a dream. He dreamt to be the Prime Minister of Malaysia. Will the people of Permatang Pauh grants him the passport to travel to Putrajaya to fulfil his dream? The signs so far seems to lead to a landslide victory for him.

Umno is banking on the 60% Malay votes as it is clear the 24% Chinese voters are not convince that Arif Shah will be the better man. Let's be practical. Without attaching emotions to the voting trend, choosing between an MP who might be future PM that can reduce the fuel price and another who will be duplicating his job as a current assemblyman, voters who are realistic and practical will surely opt for the former.

Mandarin is not an official language in Parliament isn't it? Does it makes any difference whether a Malay MP speaks Mandarin or not since he can't be presenting the people's needs in parliament in that language!

One thing for sure. The result of this by-election will be eagerly anticipated by not only people of Permatang Pauh but also the whole nation and the international community. The possible impact will be so great that the future of many depends on it. - Loka

Update : Anwar elected as the new MP for Permatang Pauh with increased majority of 15,671 votes compared to his wife Wan Azizah's majority of 13,398 in the March 2008 general election. He got 31,195 votes while his rival from Umno Arif Shah receives 15,524. Akim's Hanafi Hamat lost his deposit with only 92 votes.

August 26 - Day of Reckoning

The day of reckoning is on Aug 26, 2008. The people of Permatang Pauh will be voting over-whelmingly in a by-election to send their favorite son Anwar Ibrahim and "prime minister-in-waiting" to Parliament. That's how the people of PKR wants to think. In reality the 20 days from now will not be a well paved road of glory for Anwar to return to parliament.

He already got his yellow card - the summon to attend court tomorrow which will charged him for sodomy. Will he be given the red card - throwing him into jail since charge of sodomy is not bailable. Since he is innocent until proven guilty, he still can be nominated as a candidate on nomination day 16 Aug, but he will not be able to campaign in person. Wan Azizah will be holding the fort and leading the campaign for him, holding his songkok and sarong while campaigning!

After Anwar is charge in court and thrown into jail, BN will be analyzing the scenario of the by-election, not the question of winning or losing but calculating the worst situation that can happen and how big the majority Anwar will get this time. Knowing that BN will lose big this time, how can BN put up a fight yet still don't lose face? This will be also round two in the sparring between Anwar and Umno deputy president Najib Razak. The first round was the Ijok by-election last year which was won by a BN representative. Najib knows his image is at stake if BN candidate lost terribly.

No matter what's the scenario BN will still nominate a candidate to contest on nomination day. The big question is whether the still unknown BN candidate or even Anwar's nomination will be accepted without any objection? Will it be a saving grace for BN if their candidate's nomination is rejected on a tecnicality? This will give Anwar a walk-over but BN can claim they actually did not lose since the voters did not vote against them. This is another way of boycotting the by-election as suggested by some Umno leaders without actually doing it. Face saving measure for everybody. The Home minister too will be "happy" that he can save some money for the nation from the costs of deployment of the police force for the by-election if it is held.

If Anwar's nomination is rejected, we better pray that common sense and compassion will prevails in both the political divide.- Loka

Return of the Favorite Son

At last he decided on his familiar playground. It is a big circle indeed. The favorite son is returning to his hometown after 10 years in and out of jail. The people of Permatang Pauh has been waiting for this to happen.

Anwar Ibrahim is expected to contest in the by-election for the Permatang Pauh parliamentary seat after the incumbent MP Wan Azizah, Anwar's wife who is also PKR's president and opposition leader quits on Thursday.

Wan Azizah was a reluctant politician but politics changed her from an ordinary doctor at UM Hospital to an extraordinary opposition leader in Parliament. Her former colleagues in UM Medical Centre would have dropped their jaw if they watch her performance in parliamentary debates. Not many ordinary folks turned parliamentarians impressed me with their performance in parliament but the last time I watch her speaking in a live telecast during the recent parliament session, I took my hat off for her.

She transformed from a housewife doctor to a commendable public orator. She will be remembered in the annals of Malaysian political history not as Anwar's wife but as the first female politician that led the opposition in parliament, albeit only for a few months.

Many will put their bet on Anwar to win this by-election, including those from Umno and other BN members. Whoever stands against him in Permatang Pauh must be prepared for a mauling. But in politics we need to expect the unexpected. His opponent will be someone to be reckoned with. The whole machinery will be mobilized to fight this by-election. Umno cannot afford to let him win so easily as this will shows weakness. This will be the catalyst for new politics in Malaysia. Unless of course if he gets a red card from the law.

Anwar knows he must not fail - even a drop of a single majority vote compared to Wan Azizah's 308 victory will be taken as a rejection of the people. He must win, and win it big as the passport to convince other Umno and BN MP's that he is ready to take over the nation's leadership.

The by-election need to be held within 60 days after the Parliament Speaker notifies the Election Commission. Assuming the EC is notified next Monday August 4, 2008, the by-election can be held within 60 days from thereon but based on usual practice it should be held earlier. If take into consideration the fasting month beginning in early September and Hari Raya Puasa on October 1, the by-election is expected to be held anywhere before Independence Day on 31 August. The possible dates should be during the coming school holidays on 16 - 24 August.

The most probable Day of Judgement will be on August 23, 2008. It will be an election that will be engraved in the history of Malaysia.

The Anwar saga

More than a week ago I told a friend there will be exciting development on the political front in this few weeks. Recent events, especially the arrest of Anwar Ibrahim on Wednesday will be the hottest topic in town after the live telecast open debate on Tuesday. More exciting developments expected to be forthcoming. Expect a by-election to be called soon as PKR will surely take the opportunity to ride on the peoples sympathy for Anwar.

Interestingly, is there any co-incidence in Anwar's swift arrest and his statement to the ACA in the morning which implicates the Igp and the AG? We can only guess. To ensure the arrest and legal process taken on Anwar are seen to be fair and just, shouldn't that the persons implicated in the ACA statements which are the Igp and AG take leave from office to avoid any possible conflict of interest? This case should be handle by those who do not have any connection or interest whatsoever on Anwar's possible banishment to jail again.

Anwar Starts his First Step?

Anwar Ibrahim was in Subang Jaya tonight to celebrate the victory of their PKR new MP for Kelana Jaya, Loh Gwo Burne. Other than top guns from PKR, community leaders in this constituency was also invited for the dinner.

Is this part of Anwar's campaign trail for a Kelana Jaya by-election?

Mahathir to be Prime Minister again?

In politics, to gain and retain the position of power needs a continuos and difficult struggle but to be able to let go of the hard fought position of power requires another set of determination and understanding on the art of detachment.



After leading the nation for 22 years with a strong grip on every inch of political developments in this country, it is obvious former premier Mahathir Mohamad still finds it difficult to move on and live a life of a retiree statesman.



Since his retirement in 2003 he continues to basks in the limelight with continuos criticism of the current government especially the current premier Abdullah Badawi. Mahathir has been very vocal on the policies and direction of the government and UMNO and the momentum is gaining more speed since BN lost 5 states and the Parliament 2/3 majority in the March 8 election.



He may be very concern with the developments in BN and UMNO that were once his political playground but he ought to understand that you can't eat and keep the cake at the same time. Since he already gave up the nation's premiership and UMNO presidency, he should just move on and let others do their job albeit with occasional statesman-like advice.



If he can't live without those power and way of life, maybe he should just contest for the UMNO presidency again in December and if he wins, be appointed the sixth prime minister of Malaysia. then he can do something on whatever he has been complaining about for the past four years.



Of course assuming Anwar Ibrahim failed to convince al least 30 BN MPs to cross over to Pakatan Rakyat and he himself won a parliamentary by-election, paving the way for him to be premier.



It is up to Mahathir himself to decide whether he wants to be prime minister again and proceed with whatever he left behind in October 2003.



To be given power to rule is a responsibility with trust,

To be able to let go of the power needs courage and determination.