August 26 - Day of Reckoning

The day of reckoning is on Aug 26, 2008. The people of Permatang Pauh will be voting over-whelmingly in a by-election to send their favorite son Anwar Ibrahim and "prime minister-in-waiting" to Parliament. That's how the people of PKR wants to think. In reality the 20 days from now will not be a well paved road of glory for Anwar to return to parliament.

He already got his yellow card - the summon to attend court tomorrow which will charged him for sodomy. Will he be given the red card - throwing him into jail since charge of sodomy is not bailable. Since he is innocent until proven guilty, he still can be nominated as a candidate on nomination day 16 Aug, but he will not be able to campaign in person. Wan Azizah will be holding the fort and leading the campaign for him, holding his songkok and sarong while campaigning!

After Anwar is charge in court and thrown into jail, BN will be analyzing the scenario of the by-election, not the question of winning or losing but calculating the worst situation that can happen and how big the majority Anwar will get this time. Knowing that BN will lose big this time, how can BN put up a fight yet still don't lose face? This will be also round two in the sparring between Anwar and Umno deputy president Najib Razak. The first round was the Ijok by-election last year which was won by a BN representative. Najib knows his image is at stake if BN candidate lost terribly.

No matter what's the scenario BN will still nominate a candidate to contest on nomination day. The big question is whether the still unknown BN candidate or even Anwar's nomination will be accepted without any objection? Will it be a saving grace for BN if their candidate's nomination is rejected on a tecnicality? This will give Anwar a walk-over but BN can claim they actually did not lose since the voters did not vote against them. This is another way of boycotting the by-election as suggested by some Umno leaders without actually doing it. Face saving measure for everybody. The Home minister too will be "happy" that he can save some money for the nation from the costs of deployment of the police force for the by-election if it is held.

If Anwar's nomination is rejected, we better pray that common sense and compassion will prevails in both the political divide.- Loka

MCA at Crossroads 4

Who will gunning for the MCA deputy presidency?

At last count, expected to be crowded too. Let's have a look at the potential candidates.

1. Ong Ka Chuan - the current Secretary General have not laid out his cards yet but he would not take chances by going for the president position since public perception is against the creation of a "Ong brothers dynasty". Furthermore, his younger brother who is the outgoing president Ong Ka Ting had indirectly gave hint on his choice of successor, current VP Ong Tee Keat. He will stand a better chance as deputy president and after nine years limit for each president it will be his turn to go for the presidency.

2. Liow Tiong Lai - the Youth chief has been on the fast track since appointed the deputy Youth and sports Minister in February 2006. He was elected Youth chief in a 3 corners fight in 2005 where he was aligned to the Team B led by his mentor Lim Ah Lek. His commendable performance as deputy youth minister propels him into a full ministership after 308 election. As a minister it provides him a good platform to pursue higher office in the party but if he fails in the quest for the deputy president, he would be in a difficult situation to maintain his ministership beyond this term. He future looks brighter to be appointed Secretary General if Tee Keat wins the presidency.

3. Dr Ng Yen Yen - this post may be in her thoughts but the winning chances will be higher if she just contest for a seat as a elected vice president.

4. Dr. Ting Chew Peh - this former Housing and Local Government Minister and also for Secretary General lost in his challenge for the deputy president against Chan Kong Choy in 2005. He is expected to try his luck again since he already qualified as a delegate from the Kapar division. He has practically nothing to lose except some bruise image.

5. Chua Jui Meng - this former Health Minister contest against Ong Ka Ting for the president in 2005 but lost. His comeback vehicle will be as the chairman of the Bakri division. This will be the most viable position for him to gun for since he had lost much base since dropped as Health Minister and chairman of the Kedah state liaision committee. He will need his Johorean stateman Chua Soi Lek support to pull through.

6. Donald Lim Siang Chye - he may give it a try but do expect him to be appointed Secretary General if Chua Soi Lek wins the presidency. His base in Selangor will provides him the necessary bargaining power.

Ghosts, Fairies and Politicians

Three groups of beings are going to have their parties this August-September period.

During the 7th month of the Chinese lunar calendar the gates of hell are opened for the hungry ghosts to roam the human world freely and a chance to renew relationship with friends and relatives. These underworld beings are given a month to enjoy the freedom that only comes once a year. These visitors from the underworld will be partying all night long with the food and giant joss sticks offered to them. The Festival of the Hungry Ghosts this year is from August 1st to 30th.

The Mid-Autumn or Moon Festival which is celebrated on the 15th day of the 8th lunar month which is on September 14. This is an occasion where the moon is admired for being roundest and brightest in all months. This celebration originates during the Tang Dynasty ( 618-906 AD) and has been celebrated widely amongst the Chinese worldwide. We will be looking at the moon with resident fairy Chang Er who is still there due to her consumption of the Elixir of Life. Usually fairy tales are childrens great companion but sometimes politicians too need some fairy tales ending.

The third group of being who are also partying are of course the politicians. With the campaigning in the by-election for the Permatang Pauh parliamentary seat being held around these occasion, politicians will be enjoying the freedom of speech to the fullest. They will be campaigning in one of the most watch by-election ever to be held in Malaysia. The freedom to decide and vote will be in the hands of the Permatang Pauh voters and their decision on who they vote will provide a significant impact on certain politicians and development in this country.

What's the connection of all these festive occasions with the by-election?

It surely does. The politicians not only have to worry of bumping on those "lost" beings after their late night ceramahs but also having "ghost" voters taking part in the election. Furthermore, those who still have skeletons in their closet will be very worry that ghosts from their past will rise freely to haunt them in these by-election. The politicians will be campaigning very hard, even using the "ko tai" (stage shows) which are very popular in Penang as their platform during the Phor Tor (Hungry Ghosts) Festival. Will they be speaking to the voters and the hungry ghosts too?

During the Moon Festival cakes in round shapes filled a variety of pastes known as moon cakes are specially baked for this occasion. These moon cakes which are sold in bakeries, restaurants and supermarkets are popular delicacies. In one of the legend related to moon cakes, it was said that secret message was inserted into the mooncakes to convey the message to the people. Will the politicians adopt this strategy too since PKR and PAS's logos are related to the moon. Adding the rocket, it will be interesting if DAP will reach-out to the "moon" permanently.

For those who adheres strongly to cultural beliefs and practices, if they want to win this election with the help of the ghost voters they better pray that the voting day will be held within the Hungry Ghosts Festival i.e. before Merdeka Day.



If those who always seek divine help in their endeavours, it will help them significantly if voting is held on Sept 15 where fairies will be around to help them in full force or at least the moons shines on them brightly for the voters to see their true colours. - Loka

MCA at Crossroads 3

October 18 - a date that will be etched deeply into the annals of MCA.

A new line-up of office bearers are expected to be elected for the chinese-based political party since the political tsunami of 308 where MCA's hit into one of the worst results in a general election. The support from the chinese voters for the party was at the lowest ebb and many of its candidates in traditonal strong hold seats were wipe out especially in the premier state of Selangor.

The only MCA survivor in Selangor parliamentary seat was Ong Tee Keat in Pandan. Tee Keat won mainly due to his examplary service and personality rather than the party he represents. Other major seats that MCA lost in Selangor includes Selayang (formerly represented by MCA deputy president Chan Kong Choy), Petaling Jaya ( candidate MCA VP Donald Lim Siang Chai), Kelana Jaya ( candidate Central Committee Lee Hwa Beng), PJ Utara (candidate Wanita deputy chair Chew Mei Fun), Serdang ( formerly held by former VP Yap Pian Hon) and Klang ( candidate Selangor chairman Ch'ng Toh Eng). Most of the seats were lost to political newbie, some of them just join politics for just few months or even weeks!

These results need to be taken into consideration when analysis are made on the impact of Dr Tan Yee Kew, the former wanita deputy chair and former Klang 3-term MP, cross over to PKR yesterday bringing with her more than 2000 new members. The figure is not a small number especially it represents about 15% of the membership in MCA Klang division. The impending crossover of Yee Kew to PKR were already expected by many and the non-attendance of about 30 MCA branches in Klang division AGM a week ago was a clear signal on the number of people crossing over.

At the Kelana Jaya division AGM, their long term chief Lee Hwa Beng was given the boot by it's members. The division members decided to vote in their division Wanita head Ong Chong Swen, who lost to Hannah Yeoh for the Subang Jaya state seat in the 308 election. Hwa Beng himself succumed to huge losses to the "week old" accidental politician Loh Gwo Burne. Consider that in the previous division election, Hwa Beng was in full grip of Kelana Jaya division and many of its branches were won unopposed by his men. It looks like the 5,000 strong members in the division wants a change too.

In the chinese community there is this belief that in every crisis there will be an opportunity. The party is at a crossroads facing many challenges from within and also externally. The thought of emerging factions in the party are bringing back the ghosts of the 1980's and the early 2000's. In the 1980's it was the Tan Koon Swan faction vs Neo Yee Pan group. The crisis nearly tears MCA aparts for good. MCA was saved not by it's own but by the deputy PM that time, Ghafar Baba. The main benefactor of that time was Ling Liong Sik, who surged to the top post after eventual winner Tan Koon Swan was charged in court and then jailed.

The battle between Team A led by Ling Liong Sik against Lim Ah Lek Team B in 2000's were finally solved after both decided to step down together and hand over the leadership to Ong Ka Ting and Chan Kong Choy in 2003. Now it's the turn of Ong Ka Ting to face a similiar challenge as his former boss. This time around Ka Ting is facing another member of Liong Sik inner circle, Dr Chua Soi Lek. Ka Ting will not be defending his presidency. The stage now is set for a battle between Ka Ting's "anointed" successor Ong Tee Keat and his "team" against Dr Chua Soi Lek alliance.

It is this sort of crisis that provides many people the wide chance to move up the ladder which in normal circumstance will not provide them the golden opportunity. If a person rides on the "successful" ship or alliances, they will be moving up fast. If they are in the losing team, it can derailed their political career unless of course they switch to the winning team after that.

The coming MCA election expected to see many new and not so new faces trying their luck either to move up the ladder or securing a seat in the national committee in the main body, Wanita and Youth sections. Whoever the winners, do expect more, especially the losers to crossover to other parties after October 18. - Loka

Return of the Favorite Son

At last he decided on his familiar playground. It is a big circle indeed. The favorite son is returning to his hometown after 10 years in and out of jail. The people of Permatang Pauh has been waiting for this to happen.

Anwar Ibrahim is expected to contest in the by-election for the Permatang Pauh parliamentary seat after the incumbent MP Wan Azizah, Anwar's wife who is also PKR's president and opposition leader quits on Thursday.

Wan Azizah was a reluctant politician but politics changed her from an ordinary doctor at UM Hospital to an extraordinary opposition leader in Parliament. Her former colleagues in UM Medical Centre would have dropped their jaw if they watch her performance in parliamentary debates. Not many ordinary folks turned parliamentarians impressed me with their performance in parliament but the last time I watch her speaking in a live telecast during the recent parliament session, I took my hat off for her.

She transformed from a housewife doctor to a commendable public orator. She will be remembered in the annals of Malaysian political history not as Anwar's wife but as the first female politician that led the opposition in parliament, albeit only for a few months.

Many will put their bet on Anwar to win this by-election, including those from Umno and other BN members. Whoever stands against him in Permatang Pauh must be prepared for a mauling. But in politics we need to expect the unexpected. His opponent will be someone to be reckoned with. The whole machinery will be mobilized to fight this by-election. Umno cannot afford to let him win so easily as this will shows weakness. This will be the catalyst for new politics in Malaysia. Unless of course if he gets a red card from the law.

Anwar knows he must not fail - even a drop of a single majority vote compared to Wan Azizah's 308 victory will be taken as a rejection of the people. He must win, and win it big as the passport to convince other Umno and BN MP's that he is ready to take over the nation's leadership.

The by-election need to be held within 60 days after the Parliament Speaker notifies the Election Commission. Assuming the EC is notified next Monday August 4, 2008, the by-election can be held within 60 days from thereon but based on usual practice it should be held earlier. If take into consideration the fasting month beginning in early September and Hari Raya Puasa on October 1, the by-election is expected to be held anywhere before Independence Day on 31 August. The possible dates should be during the coming school holidays on 16 - 24 August.

The most probable Day of Judgement will be on August 23, 2008. It will be an election that will be engraved in the history of Malaysia.